Just Inside the Beltway

I've Moved...

2007-10-16T06:37:00.000-04:00

...and not just on the web. I have moved to France where I am now living with my family. So now my whole family can be seen at www.frenchforawhile.blogspot.com.

-JIB

I'll have to Watch from France

2007-08-18T12:13:00.000-04:00

BECAUSE I AM moving to France in about 2 weeks, I'll have to make this my last post here. From now on I will be at a new blog called French for a While. And what a shame that I won't be 'inside the Beltway' during the Primary season.

But that won't stop me from paying close attention from afar. To close I thought I'd put a couple of quick thoughts down before I go:

I know Rudy is a sexy pick right now, but -- as I've told some friends -- I see him as a one-trick pony. Everything is about 9/11 and terrorism. I just get the feel that he will answer every question through the lense 9/11. This will get old and the other candidates, if they are smart, will begin to pounce on this. He has no shot to win in Iowa (not conservative enough) and almost no shot in NH. Rudy's strength is at the national level, but the primary system doesn't treat 'national-first' candidates very well. Good luck Rudy, but I'm not betting on you.
I like John McCain, but I liked him better in 2000.
Clinton-Obama. If Barak wins early it's curtains for Hillary -- it's that simple. I think Dems really want to vote for Obama (and they're looking for an excuse NOT to vote for Hillary) but they aren't sure he can win in a national election. If he can pull out victories in Iowa and NH, and therefore prove he can win, Dems will jump off the Hillary bandwagon quicker than you can say Madame President.
Mike Huckabee is by far the most interesting Republican to listen too. He's funny, articulate, and common sense isn't a foreign concept to him.
If I was voting for the person who looks the most presidential I'd vote for Mitt Romney. If he doesn't get the nomination I hope he stars in the next NBC White House drama.
How am I supposed to take Chris Dodd seriously?
Biden: probably knows more about foreign policy than anyone in the field -- but he has zippy chance of finishing in the top 3 in any Dem primary.
Is John Edwards hoping for another VP slot?
I love the nerdy character Denis Kucinich used to play on Saved by the Bell?

It's tough to make a prediction, but if had to go with a choice today I'd say:

Democratic Nominee: Barak Obama
Republican Nominee: John McCain

As my least favorite sports talk show host would say: I'm Out!

New JIB in 07

2006-12-05T05:36:00.001-05:00

JIB WILL BE back with a new design and enhanced features in January of 2007.
Until then...

Highlights, Not Essays

2006-11-20T11:48:00.000-05:00

AFTER MORE THAN a week away from a computer, there is much catching up to do. However, I'll spare the long comments about mid-terms in favor of some short highlights.

Dems gain control of House (no surprise), also get Senate (mild surprise).
I would trade Jim Web or Claire McCaskill for Harold Ford, Jr., but that's just me.
I hope Heath Shuler does better in Washington this time around.
Who would have thought the GOP would go 0-for-3 in the contested races in Indiana?
I'd sure like to be in Joe Lieberman's position right now.
Larry Sabato wins the prognosticator award (off by 1 vote in House, nailed the Senate!).
There were 15 open House seats held by GOP members. Dems won 12.
The thought of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker scares me.
Exhibit A in the 'Pelosi as Speaker Scares Me' case: her decision to back Murtha.
Hooray for Steny Hoyer (a good Marylander, by the way)
I'm I the only one who thought the MSNBC coverage of the elections was great?
I'm glad Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) and Katherine Harris (R-FL) lost big time.
How did George Allen go from Presidential hopeful to unemployed in 8 weeks? Surely there are reasons beyond 'mecaca'.
What are we to make of the Religious Right now?
I can think of about 30 GOP candidates who are pretty pissed that GW didn't fire Rumsfeld a few weeks earlier.
It was fun to listen to Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity on Nov. 8.
That's the only time it's fun.
Did you see the meeting between Pelosi and Bush a couple days after the election? They looked like two junior high students on a first date. Awkward.
Wow, Santorum sure took a beating.
How did Livingston (D-LA) keep his seat? Maybe he paid off some voters with all that frozen cash.
Who's ready for '08! Let the race begin.

All Comes Down to Today

2006-11-07T21:03:00.000-05:00

ELECTION DAY HAS arrived and JIB is away on business. More to come next week.

Even More Predictions

2006-11-04T10:15:00.000-05:00

IT'S NOW TIME to give Stuart Rothenberg's predictions. According to his Political Report the House and Seante will fall this way:

House: Dems +34-40
Senate: Dems + 5-7

More Predictions

2006-11-04T10:10:00.000-05:00

ELECTION PROJECTION.COM HAS the mid-terms races falling this way:

Senate: Dems +4
House: Dems + 17
Governor: Dems +7

Prediction Time

2006-11-02T16:50:00.000-05:00

IT'S TIME FOR predictions! Not mine, mind you, but those who do this kind of thing for a living. Larry Sabato is up first -- his predictons are printed in his column today at RCP. Sabato's Predictions:

House: Dems +27 for a 230-205 majority
Senate: Dems +6 for a 51-49 majority

Hmmm. This is clearly an optimistic prediction if you're a Democrat. To get to 51 in the Senate the Dems need to pick up two of the three 'big' races (TN, VA, MO), and that could be a tough task. With Ford losing a bit of ground in Tennessee, Webb and McCaskill will have to pull out victories if the Democrats hope to gain control. And let's not forget that this all assumes Democrat victories in PA, OH, RI, MD, and NJ. And in case you've already chalked-up MD for Cardin, take a look at the most recent polls: Steele is within 3 or 4 point now.

JIB will keep close tabs on the predictions of the prognosticators. Stay tuned.

Will Lieberman Get Last Laugh?

2006-10-31T14:46:00.000-05:00

IT'S BEEN MORE than two months since Ned Lamont beat-up on Joe Lieberman in the CT primary. Now it looks like Joe may be the last one standing. The latest polls show Lieberman with a double-digit lead. The only good news for Lamont is that the one Republican in the race -- Alan Schlesinger -- is climbing a bit in the polls (up to a whopping 9% at the moment!!).

If Lieberman wins it will be interesting to see how he makes nice with his fellow Democrats. He will, after all, be clasified as an Independent.

Pastors Endorsing Candidates

2006-10-31T14:31:00.000-05:00

A PASTOR IN Minnesota has created quite a stir by publicly endorsing a candidate who is running for Congress. The candidate, Michele Bachmann, told church-goers a few weeks ago that she had been called by God to run for Congress and that God is now specifically focused on her race. After her speech, the Pastor of the Living Word Christian Center in Brooklyn Park, Minn. told the congregation that churches couldn't officially endorse candidates. But he then went on to say, "But I can tell you, personally, that I'm going to vote for Michele Bachmann.

Is this a violation of the 503b tax exempt status given to religious organizations?
Town Hall and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington have some thoughts.

Allen in Trouble in VA?

2006-10-31T09:29:00.000-05:00

TWO NEW POLLS show that George Allen is now trailing Jim Webb in Virginia. This is interesting in part because the polls come on the heels of the Allen campaign's dump of sexually provocative passages from Jim Webb's many novels. Did this backfire? We'll see.

Real Clear Politics has all the latest polling from the VA race. RCP has also 'upgraded' Virginia to No. 5 on it's list of vulnerable incumbent seats.

Cook: 'No Ebb in the Wave'

2006-10-31T08:30:00.000-05:00

DESPITE SOME REPORTS to the contrary, prognosticator-in-chief Charlie Cook is still predicting significant gains for dems in the House and the Senate. In Monday's dispatch, the Cook Political Report reports that there are 'no signs that the wave is abating.' Cook is still predicting 20-35 Dem pick-ups in the House and at least 4 pick-ups in the Senate.

Cook's report comes one day before a WSJ article about GOP claims that early voting returns show that their organizational and GOTV strategies are paying off.

Shuler-Taylor in NC-11

2006-10-30T09:51:00.001-05:00

I'VE TAKEN A special interest in the House race in North Carolina's 11th District partly (OK, almost entirely) because the Democratic challenger is Heath Shuler. That would be the same Heath Shuler chosen 3rd overall in the 1994 NFL draft by the Washington Redskins (right after Marshall Faulk). Shuler is in a tight race against Rep. Charles Taylor and the race took an interesting turn this weekend when the Ashville Citizen-Times changed positions and endorsed Shuler. CQ is rating this race as a toss-up.

Shuler's first stint in DC was a disaster, but we're eager to see what he can do the second time as a member of Congress!

I've written about this race in previous posts -- including a post that highlighted Shuler's career stats with the Redskins. Results were not so good: 292 completions in 593 attemps (49%), 3,691 passing yards, 15 career TDs, 33 career interceptions. All this in 29 career games.

Ouch!

DNC Launches New Web Ad

2006-10-30T09:18:00.000-05:00

THE DNC HAS has a new web ad on their site called 'Stay the Course'. Of course, you can also see it at You Tube. Is there anyone left who has any confidence in the current administration's Iraq policy?

Post Endorses...Ehrlich!

2006-10-25T09:40:00.000-04:00

THE WASHINGTON POST endorsed incumbent Robert Ehrlich (R) for Governor in today's edition. This endorsement will come as a bit of a shock to many in Maryland -- particularly considering the tense relationship between the Post and Ehrlich over the past four years.

Here's the latest polling info on the Maryland race. Now we'll wait to see what impact the Post endorsement has on these numbers.

RCP Average: O'Malley (50.5%) Ehrlich (43%) -- O'Malley +7.5%
SurveyUSA: O'Malley (49%) Ehrlich (43%) -- O'Malley +6%
Rasmussen: O'Malley (53%) Ehrlich (45%) -- O'Malley +8%
USA Today/Gallup: O'Malley (53%) Ehrlich (41%) -- O'Malley +12%
Mason-Dixon: O'Malley (47%) Ehrlich (43%) -- O'Malley +4%

Latest on Key Races

2006-10-22T12:14:00.000-04:00

LATEST POLL NUMBERS on key House and Senate Races. Real Clear Politics has the races ranked in the order of their liklihood to change party.

Ford Running Unique Campaign in TN

2006-10-22T11:56:00.000-04:00

ONE OF THE most watched races this year is in Tennessee, where Congressman Harold Ford is trying to take the Senate seat being vacated by current Majority Leader Bill Frist (R). The race is significant not only because it could help determine who controls the house, but --as the current issue of Newsweek explains -- Ford isn't running a typical Democrat-style campaign.

Ford is running a 'Southern-style' campaign, complete with lots of references to religion (his business cards have the 10 Commandments on the back), strong talk on immigration, and conservative-sounding positions on abortion and gay marriage.

Democrats have been working on strategies to win in red states for several years now. Recent successes in Virginia (Tim Kaine's gubernatorial win last year) have the Dems thinking about other victories in the South. However, most pundits see Virginia as a kind of hybrid state -- with the DC suburbs (where a large portion of the population lives) balancing out the more conservative southern part of the state (locals call this the NoVA vs RoVA phenomenon --where NoVa is 'northern Virginia' and RoVa is the 'rest of Virginia).

So a victory by Ford in a truly southern state could provide Democrats with a blueprint for how to turn red states blue in the coming years.

Everyone is watching.

Barron's Says GOP Will Hold On

2006-10-22T11:48:00.000-04:00

BARRON'S ONLINE HAS a cover story this week titled, Survivor!. The basic arguement: the GOP will hold on to both houses. An excerpt:

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three

We'll check back on these predictions on Nov. 8. Stay tuned.

Looking for the Conservative Soul

2006-10-22T11:30:00.000-04:00

SINCE I OFTEN look to Andrew Sullivan's Daily Dish blog for good information and commentary, let me take a moment to direct you to a review of his new book. Sunday's WaPo has the review in Book World.

THE CONSERVATIVE SOUL
How We Lost It, How to Get It Back
By Andrew Sullivan
HarperCollins, 2006

16 Days and Counting

2006-10-22T11:02:00.001-04:00

WITH ONLY 16 days left until the mid-term elections, the latest polls are worth a look. Here are 25 races that are key for the GOP if they want to hang on to the House. Real Clear Politics has much more as well.

1) TX-22: (Open - R)
2) AZ-8: (Open - R)
3) FL-16: (Open - R)
4) IN-8: (Hostettler - R)
5) PA-10: (Sherwood - R)
6) CO-7: (Open - R)
7) IA-1: (Open - R)
8) OH-18: (Open - R)
9) PA-7: (Weldon - R)
10) NY-24: (Open - R)
11) OH-15: (Pryce - R)
12) IN-2: (Chocola - R)
13) NY-26: (Reynolds - R)
14) NC-11: (Taylor - R)
15) CT-4: (Shays - R)
16) IN-9: (Sodrel - R)
17) NM-1: (Wilson - R)
18) PA-6: (Gerlach - R)
19) IL-6: (Open - R)
20) MN-6: (Open - R)
21) FL-13: (Open - R)
22) CT-2: (Simmons - R)
23) PA-8: (Fitzpatrick - R)
24) OH-2: (Schmidt -R)
25) WA-8: (Reichert -R)
26-50) More Districts

Evangelicals Now Caring About More Than Abortion and Gay Marriage?

2006-10-19T08:56:00.000-04:00

TODAY'S WASHINGTON POST has an interesting story detailing how some evangelical leaders are hoping to broaden their moral agenda by taking up strong positions on issues like the genocide in Darfur, treatment of the poor, and global warming.

But it's not sitting well with everyone on the Christian right. You can read the story for more.

Is GOP Giving Up on DeWine, Santorum, and Others?

2006-10-16T11:32:00.000-04:00

THE NEW YORK Times has a detailed story today about where the GOP is putting its money during the final three weeks before the election. I'd give you the link, but the story is behind the NYT firewall (damn you, New York Times).

Of note, however, is the fact that the GOP appears to be giving up on (using that term loosly here -- meaning 'not sending anymore money to') DeWine, Santorum, Burns, and Chafee, choosing instead to throw money into some critical House seats and three other notable Senate races -- Missouri, Tennesee, and Virginia. If we are to believe that the 4 senators above will be defeated (and that is, of course, not a sure thing), that would leave two more seats that Dems would have to win to take control. Getting two out of three from Missouri, Tenn, and Virginia will be a tough, but not out of the realm of possibility. I give the best shot to Harold Ford of Tennessee. I think Allen will pull out Virginia, but Webb continues to find himself very close in the polls.

Of course, all of this assumes that the Democrats don't lose any of their reelection bids. Most seats are safe, but Menendez in NJ is closer than some thought it would be.

Back to the Races

2006-10-05T09:34:00.000-04:00

THE MEDIA FRENZY over 'Foleygate' and 'Bob Woodward's Bookgate' has distracted Washington from those little political races that are going on across the country. TPM's Election Central has all the latest races and all the latest polls. Very interesting developments in VA, CT, PA, and MD.

Selective Moral Judgement

2006-10-05T09:21:00.000-04:00

THOSE ON THE Right are doing their best to compare the Foley scandal with the Clinton-Lewinsky mess, arguing that Democrats are exercising 'selective moral judgement' because they are 'outraged' (Hannety's word) at Foley's behavior but they were not outraged at Clinton's behavior.

I'm all for being outraged (and I was) at Clinton's behavior, but surely even right-wing hacks are smart enough to understand the difference between consensual sex between two adults and a grown man who preys on children.

We Report, You Decide?

2006-10-04T11:54:00.000-04:00

HERE IS HOW Fox News labeled Mark Foley three times yesterday during a segment of the O'Reilly Factor. D-FL?

Fair and Balanced.

Now, to be fair, it should be noted that the mistake was corrected during the re-air at 11:00pm EST. But no mention of the mistake was made during the live broadcast.

Alcohol To The Rescue

2006-10-03T14:13:00.000-04:00

ONCE AGAIN A politician/celebrity in hot water has run to rehab for cover. With the news Sunday that Mark Foley has checked himself into an alcohol rehab clinic, some are opening wondering if his sex-laced emails were simply the result of intoxication.

Has it come to this? Are we now at a place where we can drive cars into the Capitol (a la Patrick Kennedy), rant against Jews (a la Mel Gibson), or send sexually suggestive emails to minors (a la Mark Foley) and get away with it by blaming alcohol? It seems to be the defense du jour at the moment.

Andy Card on O'Reilly

2006-10-03T09:39:00.000-04:00

THE MEDIA BUZZ surrounding Bob Woodward's new book, State of Denial, is in high gear. This weekend the WaPost published lengthy excerpts, [read here] including the excerpt dealing with Andy Card's apparent desire to have Bush replace Rumsfeld after the '04 elections.

I wonder if anyone else watched Card on the O'Reilly Factor last night. It was fascinating to watch Card dance around the questions O'Reilly was throwing at him. One fact that is clear: Card DID NOT DENY wanting to have Rumsfeld replaced. At one point O'Reilly asked Card if Woodward misrepresented him. Card DID NOT say 'yes.'

It's clear that Card is doing his best to remain loyal to Bush while, at the same time, making sure people understand that Woodward's book is a fair characterization of his views. You can watch the Card interview at Fox News. Tonight O'Reilly will have Woodward on to discuss the book. 8:00pm EST.

And while we're on the topic, does anyone else see the irony in the WH response to 'State of Denial'? Their official response to every major claim made by Woodward (Rummy should go, Card wanted Rummy out, Laura wanted Rummy out, Cheney is in charge at the WH, Kissinger is calling the shots, etc.) is to...yes...DENY the reports.

Step Down Denny, Says the WaTimes.

2006-10-03T09:11:00.000-04:00

AS I'VE SAID many times in this space, I read the Washington Post every day. But it's the other daily newspaper in town that is making news this morning -- the Washington Times.

The Times is a conservative newspaper with about 1/3 the circulation of the Post. But it has a great deal of influence because it is viewed as an alternative to the 'liberal' Post. In today's editorial, the right-leaning paper demands that Speaker Hastert resign.

The fact that the WaTimes beat the WaPost in demanding Hastert's resignation should not go unnoticed. Republicans are in deep trouble if they don't rush to the front of this story. It may be too late (depending on who knew what when), but any attempt to defend the House leadership if they in fact sat on this story, will be complete disaster for the GOP.

Mark Foley's Attorney Speaks

2006-10-03T07:27:00.000-04:00

WHAT IN THE world does this mean? Mark Foley's attorney released a statement Monday. Part of the statement:

“Mark Foley has never, ever had inappropriate sexual contact with a minor in his life. He is absolutely, positively not a pedophile.”

Never had 'inappropriate sexual contact with a minor'? Is that lawyer-speak? I hope so, because for those of us not trained in the law, the statements begs this question: is there such thing as appropriate sexual contact with a minor?

WaPo Roundup: Religion Edition

2006-09-29T20:12:00.000-04:00

THE WASHINGTON POST is the paper that lands on my front steps every morning. In the past few days I have been fascinated by several stories and features on religion and politics. Quite interesting. Take a look:

Here's a bit of a switch, a voter's guide from the Religious Left.
Muslim civic leaders are leading a new push to get America's 2.2 million Muslims to vote. The efforts comes complete with ATM-style voter registration machines in mosques.
A new feature in the Post called My Faith encourages readers to write in and tell stories about personal spirituality and faith. Faith@washpost.com if you want to give it a go.
Ann Hornaday reviews Jesus Camp.

Foley's Friday Afternoon Trash

2006-09-29T20:00:00.000-04:00

FRIDAY IS 'TRASH day' in Washington -- the day bad news is released to the public with hopes that it will get lost in the weekend papers. Somehow I don't think this Rep. Mark Foley's trash is going to go unnoticed.

From The Fix:

Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) today resigned from Congress, putting his congressional seat up for grabs just 39 days before the election.
Foley has represented the 16th District since 1994 and has regularly been mentioned as a potential candidate for statewide office. He was a candidate for the U.S. Senate briefly in 2003 before dropping out, citing his desire to spend more time with his parents.
His abrupt decision to step down from his seat comes one day after ABC News reported the existence of e-mails sent by Foley last fall to a 16-year-old boy who formerly served as a congressional page. In the messages, Foley reportedly asked the boy what he wanted for his birthday and requested that the boy send a photo of himself to Foley. (The St. Petersburg Times caught up with the boy some time ago but waited to report on it until today.)
Foley's departure is likely to create havoc for Republicans in the district. The district carries a Republican tilt -- President George W. Bush won it with 54 percent in 2004. But given the controversy and press attention likely to engulf Foley, this seat could well emerge as a late-breaking opportunity for Democrats.

How Much Do Your Capitol Hill Buddies Make?

2006-09-27T10:28:00.000-04:00

WASHINGTON IS ALL abuzz over a new website that lists the salaries of the nearly 20,000 employees on Capitol Hill. The site was shut down earlier this week -- not because of a court order or an act of Congress -- but because the site was getting more hits than it could handle.

Salires of Congressial staffers are a matter of public record, but it used to be rather difficult to get the information because you had to consult thick books or hard to find websites. But no more thanks to legistorm.com. Now all the salaries you could ever want are just a couple of clicks away.

If you have friends who work on the hill (and I do), this site provides hours of entertainment!!

A Presbyterian Pastor's Take on Torture

2006-09-27T09:31:00.000-04:00

THIS FROM A recent Daily Dish post.

As a Presbyterian pastor, I continue to be stunned by the unthinking support of many evangelicals for a policy that permits torture. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when the so-called "Traditional Values Coalition" decided that torture was among the traditional values that they feel compelled to support.
When Jesus was put on trial and handed over to Pontius Pilate, he rejected violence and said, "My kingdom is not of this world." He was then tortured and brutally murdered (three hours in a "stress position" on the cross, as one of your readers aptly noted). "Caesar", of course, went on to torture and brutally murder innocent Christians who were "threats to the state." Now, 2,000 years later, in their wordly lust for power, Christians are hopping into bed with Caesar and signing off on anything Caesar wants, especially if Caesar takes care of the Christian "base".
In my Presbyterian tradition, we are called to stand outside the halls of power and speak truth to those in power, no matter what party is in control. We are not called to become that power ourselves; Jesus' kingdom is not of this world; his values are not Caesar's values.
Last year on Good Friday, my church had our traditional worship service at which we read the story of Jesus' torture and execution. To make the story more than just a past event, we read three contemporary accounts of innocent individuals who had been tortured. If we were going to shed tears for our innocent Lord Jesus, we also needed to shed tears for other innocent victims of torture. One story we read was about Christians in China - "threats to the state" - including a mother who was brutally interrogated while hearing the cries of her son being tortured in the next room. Interestingly enough, the Christian Right would join me in expressing outrage against innocent Christians.
Another story was of a man who described these conditions:
"I saw a cell almost the size of a grave. 3 feet wide, 6 feet deep, and 7 feet high. The cell had no light in it; it only had two thin mattresses (two thin blankets) on the ground ... I was kept in that dark and filthy cell for about 10 months. The worst beating happened on the third day ... they were asking the same set of questions and they would beat me 3-4 times. They would sometimes take me to another room where I could hear other people being tortured ... at the end of the day I could not take the pain anymore and I falsely confessed of having been to Afghanistan."
We read that story last Good Friday. The man's name? Maher Arar, a Canadian citizen, who was arrested at JFK airport in New York. He was then deported by the American government via Jordan to Syria, where he was detained in the cell described above. Just last week Arar and his claims of innocence were completely vindicated by the Canadian government. The Traditional Values Coalition would probably respond: an unfortunate mistake, but torture is still a necessary policy.
And What Would Jesus Do?
Jesus wept.

The Big Mac Index

2006-09-23T20:51:00.000-04:00

FOR SEVERAL MONTHS I've been following the Big Mac Index over at The Economist. It's based on the theory of purchasing power parity -- the idea that $1 should buy the same amount in all countries. According to the theory, exchange rates between countries should move towards the rate that equalizes the prices of a basket of goods in each country. You have to have a password to read the articles, but it's worth it.

Just something fun to do if you're into that kind of thing. (Hey, it's the weekend -- what else are you going to do?)

October Surprise? Ask Rove

2006-09-23T20:21:00.000-04:00

BIN LADEN'S DEATH has been, to quote Twain, 'greatly exaggerated' before. Could it be true this time? Time is reporting the following on their website:

The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that Saudi officials have received multiple credible reports over the last several weeks that Bin Laden has been suffering from a water-borne illness. The source believes that there is a "high probability" that Bin Laden has already died from the disease, but stressed that Saudi officials have thus far received no concrete evidence of Bin Laden's death.
"This is not a rumor," says the source. "He is very ill. He got a water-related sickness and it could be terminal. There are a lot of serious facts about things that have actually happened. There is a lot to it. But we don't have any concrete information to say that he is dead."

But what makes this latest report so interesting is that it comes on the heels of several conservative web site reports that say Rove has promised key Republicans an October Surprise. Key quote:

According to two conservative websites, White House political strategist Karl Rove has been promising GOP insiders that there will be an "October surprise" before the midterm elections.
"In the past week, Karl Rove has been promising Republican insiders an 'October surprise' to help win the November congressional elections," reports Ronald Kessler for Newsmax

The Role of the Christian Right

2006-09-21T10:02:00.000-04:00

MY FRIENDS AT Spectrum Magazine have a link to a new blog that is currently featuring an online conversation between Jim Wallis and Ralph Reed on the topic of values and the American voter. Quite interesting.

Of course, the big question for political types is what role the Christian Right will play in the November elections. There is little debate that groups like the Christian Coalition have lost at least some of their influence during the past year or so. Ralph Reed is a good example. He was snarled in the Jack Abramoff scandal and his close ties with Abramoff are at least partially responsible for his primary defeat in a bid to become Lt. Governor of Georgia. Recent statements by perennial blow-hards like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell haven't helped either. Key primary losses by so called 'Christian Coaltion endorsed' candidates in South Carolina and Tennessee only illustrates this pont more clearly.

However, no good candidate is going to ignore the impact of the Religious Right this year. They tend to rise up at key times, leading GOTV efforts and turning the current debate into an 'on God's side' vs. 'not on God's side' issue. For some reason, that tactic works in many parts of this country.

Like I have said in previous posts on this blog, it's one thing to bring moral witness, rooted in faith, to the public square. It's another thing to align - or detach - God with one party or one candidate. The Wallis-Reed debate is worth a look. Will it help bring some rationality to the religious debate in this country?

We can only pray that it does.

What Would Popeye Do?

2006-09-19T09:01:00.000-04:00

I'LL BE THE first to admit that I hated spinach as a youngster. Not even Popeye could convince me that the green leafy vegetable was good for me. Of course, I'm going to partially blame my parents (sorry mom and dad) because the only way they used to serve it at dinner time was...boiled! Come on, how were my sister and I supposed to learn to like boiled spinach?

Now comes word from the CDC that eating spinach might kill you. 10-yr. olds haven't been this happy since 'High School Musical' came out on DVD. But the impact of the E. Coli scare goes far beyond 5th grade classrooms -- it also hits the agriculture and food-service market in a big way as this article helps to explain. The economic impact could be felt for months according to the FDA, and even then, there's no guarantee that the source of the bacterial will be known.

Meanwhile, spinach is off limits until further notice. Stores are pulling it off shelves and restaurants are pulling it off menus. Too bad, because I now love spinach -- as long as it's not boiled.

Here's today's WaPo cartoon on the subject.

One Nation Under God?

2006-09-18T10:16:00.000-04:00

THE REVIEWS ARE in for The Holy Vote: The Politics of Faith in America, the new book by Ray Suarez that examines the role of religion in American politics and foreign policy. I read the Washington Post review on Sunday in Book World, and you can read if for yourself here.

The publisher summarizes the book as follows:

the book 'examines the way Americans worship, how organized religion and politics intersect in America, and how this powerful collision is transforming the current and future American mind-set Not since the Civil War has the United States been so polarized -- politically and ideologically. But at the very heart of this fracture is a fascinating rig and paradoxical marriage between our country’s politics and religions.'

I welcome any comments from those who may have read the book already.

Primary Roundup (DC/MD edition)

2006-09-14T21:42:00.000-04:00

SEPTEMBER 12 WAS a big day for a number of local politicians in DC and Maryland. Here's a quick look at the winners in the key races. To compare the results with my predictions on this site, read my post from last Monday.

District of Columbia Mayor: Adrian Fenty (photo right)
Maryland US Senate: Ben Cardin
Maryland House (8th District): Chris Van Hollen
Maryland House (4th District): Al Wynn
Maryland Governor: Martin O'Malley
Maryland Comptroller: Peter Franchot
Maryland Attorney General: Doug Gansler
Maryland State Senate (20th District): Jamie Raskin
Maryland House (20th District): Sheila Hixon, Tom Hucker, Heather Mizeur
Montgomery County Executive: Ike Leggett
Montgomery County Council (5th District): Valerie Ervin

While all the races will have an impact on local (and perhaps national) races, the stories that are of most interest seem to be the following:

Adrian Fenty will be DC's youngest mayor. He's 35! Good luck Mr. Fenty. [read WaPo story].
the end of an era for William Donald Schaefer, the former Baltimore mayor and Maryland governor lost for the first time in 51 years. [read WaPo story].
DC suburbs showing some muscle in state-wide races. For the first time since 1919, a Montgomery County candidate has won a state-wide election. And this year two candidates did it: Doug Gansler (Rockville) for Attorney General and Peter Franchot (Takoma Park) for Comptroller. [read WaPo story]
And Marc Fisher argues that voters shattered stereotypes and voted for candidates based on...gasp...qualifications and ability. An excerpt:

In one contest after another, blacks and whites alike convincingly trashed politicians' cynical belief that voters can be counted on to cast ballots along racial lines. In majority-black Washington, the exceedingly white at-large council member Phil Mendelson trounced vigorous opponent Scott Bolden, who told me on several occasions that it was time for blacks to take back a majority on the D.C. Council. Mendelson -- a charisma-free campaigner who makes Mayor Williams seem like Denzel Washington -- won in every ward of the city, and he won big, mainly because people of every stripe saw through Bolden's divisive rhetoric and arrogant manner.

On to the generals in November!

What's Your Definition of 'Is'?

2006-09-12T09:56:00.000-04:00

DID ANYONE CATCH President Bush's statement on torture last week? Andrew Sullivan did in his Daily Dish. Bush's statement reminds him of another famous statement by a sitting President. Look at them side by side:

I want to be absolutely clear with our people, and the world: The United States does not torture. It's against our laws, and it's against our values. I have not authorized it - and I will not authorize it. -George Bush, 2006

Now this from 1998:

I want to say one thing to the American people. I want you to listen to me. I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky. I never told anyone to lie, not a single time, never. These allegations are false and I need to go back to work for the American people." -- Bill Clinton, 1998

Semantic gymnastics, no? Aren't both statements semantic evasions to avoid what is probably a direct lie? It's amazing how similar these two statements are!

Here's Sullivan's take:

Each man is using a private dictionary to redefine a word otherwise clear to any other rational person. But the broader conclusion is obvious: Clinton lied about an extra-marital affair in a civil sexual harassment lawsuit. Bush is lying about one of the core features of a civilized and decent society in the middle of a vital war. The Republicans ridiculed Clinton for his linguistic somersaults - and even impeached him for it. They are mostly silent today. A telling contrast, I'd say.

Is Clinton guilty of having sexual relations with Lewinsky? Is the US guilty of torturing prisoners? Perhaps it depends on what your definition of 'is' is.

If It's Monday

2006-09-11T10:59:00.000-04:00

IF IT'S MONDAY, it poll-release day over at WSJ/Zogby. Here are the latest in some of the key Senate races. All the following polls were released on Sept. 11.

WI-SEN WSJ/Zogby Kohl (D) 50.3%, Lorge (R) 35.3
WA=SEN WSJ/Zogby Cantwell (D) 50.2%, McGavick (R) 42%
VA-SEN WSJ/Zogby Webb (D) 50.4%, Allen (R) 42.9%
TX-SEN WSJ/Zogby Hutchinson (R) 47.8%, Radnofsky (D) 39%
TN-SEN WSJ/Zogby Corker (R) 45.3%, Ford (D) 42.6%
OH-SEN WSJ/Zogby Brown (D) 44.7%, DeWine (R) 40.7%
NY-SEN WSJ/Zogby Clinton (D) 57.2%, McFarland (R) 29.1%
NM-SEN WSJ/Zogby Bingaman (D) 58.6%, McCulloch (R) 32.7%
NJ-SEN WSJ/Zogby M enendez (D) 40.4%, Kean (R) 40.2%
MD-SEN WSJ/Zogby Cardin (D) 49.4%, Steele (R) 40.2%
MD-SEN WSJ/Zogby Mfume (D) 50%, Steele (R) 39%
FL-SEN WSJ/Zogby Nelson 51%, Harris (R) 32%
CT-SEN WSJ/Zogby Lieberman (CFL) 46%, Lamont (D) 42.1%
PA-SEN WSJ/Zogby Casey (D) 47%, Santorum (R) 42.9%

Several of these polls have seen significant movement in recent weeks. Most notable, I think, are the races in Virginia and Pennsylvania.

In VA, George Allen hasn't recovered from his bout with foot-in-mouth disease (will voters ever forget 'mecaca'?). Two months ago Allen was leading by double digits and thinking about a possible races for the White House. Now he finds himself trailing Webb in more than one poll. Allen's White House chances are now dead or almost dead (depending on who you talk to) and he's in real trouble in what should be a safe state for Republicans, considering the pro-military influence in the Hampton Roads area. But for the the first time in his political career, Allen is facing a pretty stiff head wind and we'll have to see how he handles it.

In Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum is actually in better shape than he was a couple of months ago, despite new polls showing him down by about 4-5 points. Santorum is desperately trying to hold on to his seat and is facing a lot of trouble at home because of his staunch support for POTUS (Santorum has a 97% 'pro-Bush' voting record -- highest percentage in the Senate). He is now trying to cast himself as an independent thinker (good luck) and is finding new ways to disagree with Bush. Several Washington insiders have written in recent weeks that Rove and Bush have given him permission to bash the Administration if it helps his chances in Nov. Casey, for his part, isn't buying it and is calling out Santorum on his recent view changes. But it looks like the Santorum tactic may be working -- two months ago Casey was leading by double digits.

As always, stay tuned.

Local Voting Guide

2006-09-11T10:47:00.000-04:00

IF YOU DON'T live in Montgomery County, Maryland, you'll probably find no interest in this post. With primary day tomorrow (Sept. 12) I'm posting who I'm planning to vote for in several of the state and local races.

Maryland Senate: Ben Cardin
Maryland House (8th District): Chris Van Hollen
Maryland House (4th District): Donna Edwards
Maryland Governor: Martin O'Malley
Maryland Comptroller: Peter Franchot
Maryalnd Attorney General: Doug Gansler
Maryland State Senate (20th District): Ida Ruben or Jamie Raskin
Maryland House (20th District): Aaron Klein, Tom Hucker, Heather Mizeur
Montgomery County Executive: Steve Silverman
Montgomery County Council (5th District): Han Reimer

I am more passionate about some candidates than others.

And in an effort to reveal all bias that I may have, I should reveal that I have worked (unpaid) for the Van Hollen, Silverman, and Reimer campaigns this spring and summer.

Election Central

2006-09-05T11:43:00.000-04:00

I HATE TO pimp TPM Cafe more than I already td, but they really do have a great section on their site called Election Central. All the newest polls and up to date info on the races that matter (like there's a race that doesn't matter!!).

Labor Day Note:

As usuual, I spent my Labor Day working the local parade routes with Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD). It's become a bit of a tradition in Maryland -- like much of the county, I imagine -- that Labor Day parades are more about politics than celebrating a day off. In the Kennsington (MD) parade on Monday there were no fewer than 21 political candidates participating in some way or another. State Delegate races, State Senate races, County Council races, Governor's race, US Stenate race, Congressional races, School Board, Attorney General, etc, etc, etc.

Is this what we now celbrate on Labor Day? Political Candidates?

Is Bush's Iraq Policy Extreme?

2006-08-29T10:12:00.000-04:00

SAW AN INTERESTING mailer today from Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, a Republican member of Congress from Pennsylvania facing a touch challenge from Patrick Murphy, a Democrat and an Iraq War vet. Earlier this month, Fitzpatrick sent out a mailer arguing for a 'better, smarter plan in Iraq.' A plan that:

"says NO to both extremes: No to President Bush's 'stay the course' strategy...and no to Patrick Murphy's 'cut and run' approach."

What? So now we have Republicans calling Bush's strategy 'extreme'? This certainly is a change from even a few months ago. Of course, it's not just Fitzpatrick who's changing his tune on Iraq. Shays (CT), Sen. Lindsay (SC), and Sen. McCain (AZ) have all begun testing new talking points on the war -- talking points that sure don't sound like they were written by Dick Cheney or Rummy.

This new Republican descant may be in response to several new polls recently released that show that, for the first time, a majority of people surveyed found no linke between the war in Iraq and broader war on terror. That means that a majority of people surveyed now reject the core foreign policy argument of this administration!

Just Inside the Beltway is going to monitor what Republican incumbents are saying about the war between now and November. Let's see to what lengths some will go to save their job. Calling Bush's policy 'extreme' is a pretty good start.

If you know of other incumbents (Republicans or Dems) who are changing their tune now that elections are coming, send them along and I'll post them.

Religion and Foreign Affairs

2006-08-28T14:31:00.000-04:00

I SEEM TO be on a bit of 'religion & politics' kick right now. A friend of mine who works on Capitol Hill forwarded an interesting article to me from Foreign Affairs written by Walter Russell Mead (a fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations here in DC.) The article examines how fundamentalists, liberal christians, and evangelicals view US foreign policy. Read the article here.

For a lot more on religion and politics, visit my friends at Spectrum Magazine.

Katherine Harris on Church & State

2006-08-26T10:07:00.000-04:00

KATHERINE HARRIS (yes, the Katherine Harris) is taking religious pandering to a new level. Take a look at her comments to Florida Baptist Witness, the weekly journal of the Florida Baptist State Convention. Harris is seeking the Republican nomination for Senate and faces a tough primary on Sept. 5:

ORLANDO, Aug. 25 -- Rep. Katherine Harris (R-Fla.) said this week that God did not intend for the United States to be a "nation of secular laws" and that the separation of church and state is a "lie we have been told" to keep religious people out of politics..."If you're not electing Christians, then in essence you are going to legislate sin," Harris said. (except from story in Washington Post, August 26, 2006)

Harris goes on to cite abortion and same-sex marriage as examples of the sin she is referring to. You can read the entire story at the Washington Post or read Harris's profile and interview straight from the source at Florida Baptist Witness. Then, if you dare, check out the editorial by James Smith, the Executive Director of Florida Baptist Witness. Here's the opening paragraph:

How many of you will sin on Sept. 5th by failing to vote? That’s the day when Floridians will go to the polls and choose candidates in each political party’s primaries for various statewide and local offices, as well as for certain non-partisan positions. Some voters choose to take advantage of the option of voting early or by absentee ballot. But, the bottom line is—by whatever means it is done, I believe Christians who fail to vote are, in fact, sinning.

I wonder which person has committed the greater sin: a man who doesn't vote or a man who marries his boyfriend?

Comments?

Weekend Round-Up

2006-08-25T13:45:00.000-04:00

THE MOST IMPORTANT things to read this weekend:

POTUS unveiled his new Iraq arguement this week: 'it could be worse.' For three years we have been told time and time again that we are 'making progress' in Iraq - much more progress that we realize. We've been told that the reason American's don't think the war is going well is because the media never reports on the 'good things happening in Iraq.' Now Bush tells us that it could be worse. It seems to me that this change in rhetoric reflects a broader pessimism within the administrion -- even in it's most optimistic corners -- that the venture in Iraq has taken a significant turn for the worse in recent weeks and months. WaPo is one of many papers writing about this.
Much Ado About Macaca. This is big news around DC. Again, the Post has the story, including a good column by Dana Milbank.
The LA Times is happy that France is finally stepping up to the table.
Amir Taheri writes in the WSJ that Hezbollah did not win.
Chatham House, a prominent British think tank based at King's College, recently published a report in which they argue that Iran may be the chief beneficiary of the war on terror. An excerpt:
There is little doubt that Iran has been the chief beneficiary of the war on terror in the middle east...Iran...has now superseded the US as the most influential power [in Iraq].
Hmmm. Chew on that for a minute.
Next time you rent a car, take a moment to consider what you are doing -- from a Freakonomics point of view.

Did I Miss Anything?

2006-08-22T20:37:00.000-04:00

I TRIED TO keep up with the world while vacationing, but it was hard while spending several hours each day on the beach, or at the pool, or eating out a nice restaurants, or just relaxing with a book. But I did get my hands on a copy of NY Times a couple of times and my television had cable so I was able to watch The Daily Show. What more did I need?

I was happy to have a copy of Foreign Policy waiting for me when I got home. The cover story is quite interesting. Here's the opening -- and you can find the rest at the Foreign Policy site (sub. required).

At 8:45 a.m., Sept. 11, 2001, we were living in the post Cold War era. At 9:37 a.m., just 52 minutes later, as the third hijacked airliner careened into the Pentagon, the post–9/11 era had begun. Everyone told us that everything had changed.

The question the article looks at is this: Has anything changed?

Also read Fiasco while away. If you haven't read it -- get it and read it now.

2006-08-15T11:42:00.000-04:00

JUST INSIDE THE BELTWAY will return when I get back from vacation on August 23. In the meantime, there is plenty of good reading at the links on the right.

CT Fallout

2006-08-09T20:06:00.000-04:00

EVERYONE'S GOT SOMETHING to say about the Lamont/Lieberman primary. Rather than subject you to my ramblings, here's a sample of what others in the blogosphere are saying:

Andrew Sullivan is short and too the point.
John Marshall (TPM) has a column at Time.com that looks at both the Iraq Factor and the Liberal Blog factor (or neither!?!)
Dan Froomkin has an interesting piece in the Wash Post, calling the Lamont victory the beginning of a real anti-Bush movement. I suppose. But then again, when would a Democratic primary not be anti-Bush? I think we might have to wait until the general election to see how deep the anti-Bush sentiment is -- although recent polls suggest it's getting deeper by the day.
Rove tells Lieberman, 'The boss wants to help.' Rove is helping Lieberman? Details at The Plank.

I'm Calling It

2006-08-08T23:08:00.000-04:00

IT'S JUST PAST 11:00pm on the east coast and I'm calling the CT race for Ned Lamont. I have basis for doing this other than the fact that I'm tired and I have to get up early. That, and the fact that AP is reporting 95% of the vote in with Lamont up about 51.2% to 48.7%.

Much closer than many thought earlier in the week. And you can be sure that you haven't heard the last of Lieberman. We may be watching a tight Lamont/Lieberman race again in November.

Lieberman (I-CT)?

2006-08-08T23:00:00.000-04:00

THE 'I' IS for Independent. If Lamont wins (51-49 right now with nearly 90% reporting) you can count on Lieberman taking this race to November. If he'd lost by 10 or 12 points he probably would have given up. But if he finishes within 3-5 points he'll be the Independent candiate for Senate. Especially when you consider that he closed the gap by nearly 10 points in the final 2-3 days.

Remember this: CT has more registered Independent voters than registered Democrat or Republican voters. I think they may be the only state in the union where that is true.

More Primary Buzz

2006-08-08T22:35:00.000-04:00

IT LOOKS LIKE Cynthia 'Do You Know Who I Am' McKinney (D-GA) is losing her primary election to Henry C. “Hank” Johnson, the former DeKalb County commissioner. With about 51% reportng, Johnson is leading by a commanding 58%-42%. This must be a relief to the Capitol Hill Police.

And Bill 'What Do You Want For Dinner, Honey? I've Got Frozen Vegetables, Frozen Dinners, or Frozen Cash' Livingston (D-LA) may have a primary on his hands afterall. State Senator Derrick Shepard has announced he will try to unseat Livingston, who is under a federal investigation for bribery, in the Democratic primary later this fall.

And finally, Tom Delay has decided to drop out of the race for his seat in Texas. You see, he had wanted to have his spot taken by another Republican, but Antonin Scalia (yes, that Scalia) refused to block a lower court's ruling that Delay must remain on the ballot. Delay says he hopes his withdrawal will enable him to focus on electing a Republican through a write-in campaign.

By the way, if you're keeping score at home, that makes three members of congress (Cunningham, DeLay, Ney) with close ties to Jack Abramoff who have resigned or will not seek re-election, and one (Ralph Reed) who lost in a primary bid to be the Lt. Govenor of Georgia.

Thanks for all the help, Jack.

Still Very Close

2006-08-08T22:17:00.000-04:00

IT'S CLOSE! AND it's getting closer as the night goes on. The latest numbers I've seen show
Lamont 51.76%, Lieberman 48.24% -- that's with 76.86% of the vote in. What's fascinating, though, is the fact that the margin has been decreasing all night. I wish I knew which precincts were in and which were still coming.

Media Say Lamont

2006-08-08T22:14:00.000-04:00

AS EARLY AS 7:00 pm (EST) most news channels were all but predicting a Lamont victory. Chris Matthews was asking his quests questions like, 'What is Lieberman going to do now?' and 'How will Lamont impact the Senate.'

Only polling I've seen shows that Lamont is leading. Somewhere around 55%-45%.

What Would a Lamont Victory Mean?

2006-08-06T20:48:00.000-04:00

SO WHAT WOULD a Ned Lamont victory mean for Dems as 2008 nears? It certainly will embolden the anti-war wing of the party. It also will serve as the most important victory to date for the internet-based, grass-roots faction of the party -- the same group that gave Howard Dean such a huge lift in the early stages of the '04 primary.

But more importantly, a Lamont victory will have huge implications for the presidential plans of people like Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, John Edwards, and...yes, Al Gore. As Dan Balz reports in Sunday's WaPo, it may be Al Gore who would gain the most from Lamont win.

Lamont v. Lieberman: One Day Left

2006-08-06T20:23:00.000-04:00

A COUPLE OF new poll results were released this weekend and none of them were good news for Joe Lieberman. In fact, most of them showed him losing to Ned Lamont by double digits. The problems for Lieberman go beyond the Iraq war, although it is clear the his position on Iraq is the fueld for the Lamont fire.

Jeff Greenfield has a piece at CNN.com that argues Lieberman's problems extend well beyound Iraq. Fair enough, my only concern is that Ned Lamont's positions don't extend beyond Iraq.

Great News for DC Caffeine Addicts

2006-08-03T13:50:00.000-04:00

DAN MILBANK IS away so Washington Sketch is on a bit of a break at WaPo. But that doesn't mean page A2 doesn't have some good information. Today's Post has an interesting graph that shows how many Starbucks outlets there are in each state per 100,000 people. Although DC is not listed on the graph (we're only a city, remember), I found the Starbucks info for DC and added it to the list. Here's what the list would look like if DC was a state.

Starbucks per 100,000:
District of Columbia 11.8
Washington 8.89
Nevada 7.99
Colorado 6.90
Oregon 6.67
California 5.56
Hawaii 4.63
Arizona 4.18
Alaska 3.77
Illinois 3.23

Of course, this shouldn't be surprising for any who lives near DC. This is, after all, the city where you can go to Connecticut Ave near Dupont Circle and find a Starbucks directly across the street from...you guessed it...another Starbucks.

What's not to like about that?

Endorsement Update - CT Senate

2006-08-01T16:34:00.000-04:00

OVERKILL MIGHT DESCRIBE my attention to the CT Senate race. But that's what happens this time of year -- political races rule my free time. Just ask my wife -- she wonders why I spend so much time watching C-SPAN. (I tell her it's for the hot chicks).

In the latest round of endorsements, both Lamont and Lieberman picked up big ones. The NY Times (damn you, NY Times!) has abandoned Lieberman -- their candidate of choice for the past, oh, 20 years or so -- in favor of Lamont. Meanwhile, Lieberman got the endorsement of the hometown Hartford Courant.

One Week and Counting

2006-08-01T15:49:00.000-04:00

LIEBERMAN-LAMONT IS going down to the wire. Why?

That's the big question isn't it? Pundits from both sides have been trying to explain (and predict) this race for the past few months. Neither side really knows how the race is going to end up, but rank-and-file Dems have been coming out in force for Lieberman in recent weeks. A couple of weeks ago Bill Clinton hit the campaign trail. This week, a who's-who among Senate Democrats took up the Lieberman cause. Shumer, Dodd, Levin, and others. My favorite was Ken Salazar (CO), who gave a stump speach calling Lieberman "a hero of mine and someone who has inspired me." Glowing words.

But there's a bigger issue at play in this race, and this is future road map for the Democratic party. Are Dems in Connecticut (and around the country) abandoning Democrats who they see as chasing a 'center' that has been moving to the right since 1980? Are Democrats so disgusted with the Bush presidency that they will sacrifice one of their most effective Senators for a 'further from Bush' candidate?

I'm sure it's not that quite that simple. EJ Dionne has some more insights in today's WaPo. Here's Dionne's summary:

As for the primary, the lesson already is clear. A Democratic Party that has been on the defense since the 1980s desperately wants to go on offense. Lamont understands that. If Lieberman is to survive this round, he needs to make clear between now and next Tuesday that he's gotten the message.

The only thing we know for sure is that this will all be decided next Tuesday. Isn't that the beauty of politics?

Forbes Ranks DC #1

2006-07-31T11:04:00.000-04:00

FORBES MAGAZINE HAS recently published a list of the best cities in America to get a job -- and Washington, DC ranks #1. The list is based on things like uneployment rates, living standard, median income, and job growth. The mag ranked 100 cities on these and other criteria and the results were quite interesting.

From the 'not surprising' category: Detroit and New Orleans are the two worst cities to get a job. Much more surprising is the fact that neither New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, or San Francisco managed to crack the top 85, finishing 96th, 93rd, 85th, and 87th respectively.

In case you missed it, here's the top 5 cities:

Washington, DC
Phoenix, AZ
Las Vegas, NV
Orlando, FL
Bethesda, MD (a DC suburb)

Well, good for DC. We need the good news every once in a while. However, I'm wondering if Forbes factored in things like the cost of a small house ($500,000+) or summer temps (100 + degrees this week) into their list. I kind of doubt it.

Lieberman, Who Art Thou?

2006-07-31T09:07:00.000-04:00

DESPITE SPENDING MOST of Sunday in Philadelphia, I did happen to read a story on Lieberman in the Hartford Courant. I don't know what's more depressing, the story (I'm still rooting for him) or the fact that I spent part of my weekend reading the Hartford Courant. But the story is worth a read as it tries to explain how and why Lieberman seems to have lost his mojo.

Does Rummy Get It?

2006-07-26T17:47:00.000-04:00

WHAT ARE WE to make of Rumsfeld's latest assessment of the situation in Iraq. In a brief interview today he was asked if Iraq was closer to a Civil War. This was his response:

Oh, I don't know. You know, I thought about that last night, and just musing over the words, the phrase, and what constitutes it. If you think of our Civil War, this is really very different. If you think of civil wars in other countries, this is really quite different. There is - there is a good deal of violence in Baghdad and two or three other provinces, and yet in 14 other provinces there's very little violence or numbers of incidents. So it's a - it's a highly concentrated thing. It clearly is being stimulated by people who would like to have what could be characterized as a civil war and win it, but I'm not going to be the one to decide if, when or at all.

You can read the full transcript at the DoD website.

I think Andrew Sullivan has it right: Rumsfeld's detachment from his own responsibility is breathtaking.

Late Summer Reading

2006-07-25T16:30:00.000-04:00

THE LATEST IN a series of books that are critical of the Iraq 'situation' is now available for your summer reading pleasure (early copies available in some places). 'Fiasco' , by WaPo writer Thomas E. Hicks, seems to have a leg up on the others in terms of credibility, but we'll have to see. The Right Wing will try to discredit him -- you know, because any report of something bad happening in Iraq is a product of the liberal media. But look for 'Fiasco' to weather the 'liberal media' storm a bit better than some other books on the topic. Several of the reviews I've read indicate a pretty long paper (and source) trail that backs up Hicks' account.

Michiko Kakutani has a review the book in the NY Times (which, of course, you can't read online because of their firewall -- damn you, NY Times!) . But here's a quick excerpt:

An after-action review from the Third Infantry Division underscores the Pentagon's paucity of postwar planning, stating that "there was no guidance for restoring order in Baghdad, creating an interim government, hiring government and essential services employees, and ensuring that the judicial system was operational." And an end-of-tour report by a colonel assigned to the Coalition Provisional Authority memorably summarized his office's work as "pasting feathers together, hoping for a duck."

I'll get my copy just in time for my trip to the beach.

Americans in Europe, Again

2006-07-23T14:37:00.000-04:00

QUICK, NAME THE last European to win the Tour de France. How about the British Open? What's the matter, no names rolling off your tongue? Perhaps that's because it's been a while. Americans have been dominating the two biggest sporting events (outside soccer) in Europe for about a decade now. The French and Italian press desperately hoped American domination of the Tour de France would end with the retirement of Lance Armstrong. No such luck. Floyd Landis, a Mennonite from Pennsylvania, won this years race in dramatic fashion. Read the JIB account here or get the OLN account here.

Meanwhile, the British have been waiting for one their own to win since 1999 when Scotsman Paul Lawrie won the Claret Jug. Lawrie is the only European to win the Open in nearly 15 years. This Sunday, Tiger Woods put together an emotional four-day win to claim his 3rd Open Title, and second in a row.

Oh, and in case you're still looking for the answer: the last European to win the Tour was Marco Pantani in 1998. The last European to win the Open was the the aforementioned Lawrie. And just to hit home the point: the last time Europeans won both events in the same year was 1992 when Spaniard Miguel Indurain won the Tour and Nick Faldo won the Open.

Boy, Europe must really be getting tired of the United States.

Joe to Get Help from Bill

2006-07-20T16:59:00.000-04:00

BILL CLINTON WILL make an appearance in CT to campaign for Joe Lieberman. That's good news for Joe. It's also good news for the Democratic 'center'.

This race is a critical one for the Dems. I'm guessing Lieberman will pull it out in a squeaker. Let's hope so.

Landis in Paris?

2006-07-20T16:36:00.000-04:00

WITHOUT LANCE ARMSTRONG there were questions about whether an American would be wearing the yellow jersey in Paris at the end of this year's Tour de France. Last week it looked like Floyd Landis (Team Phonak) would have as good a chance as anyone to be in yellow. Then came stage 16 -- a tremendous stage with three massive moutain climbs. Landis bonked (as they say), finishing nearly 10 minutes behind the winner (losing more than 1 minute per kilometer on the final climb), finding himself more than 8 minutes behind the yellow jersey

The Tour was over for Floyd Landis, the shy rider who grew up in a strict Mennonite family in rural Pennsylvania.

At least that's what the French and Italian press said.

But they didn't count on Landis's performance in today's 17th stage -- another brutal stage, this one covering 200.5 kilometers with 5 major mountain passes. Landis broke away with nearly 100 km to go and beat everyone up the Col de Columbiere and the Col du Joux-Plane and gaining back all by 30 seconds of the previous days deficit.

Wow. And I thought the Tour might be a bit boring without Lance. Read much more about this year's tour at OLN. And get ready for Saturday's individual time trial - it's going to decide the winner.

Fair Media Coverage on Iraq

2006-07-20T16:33:00.000-04:00

CAN FAIR-MINDED REPUBLICANS in Congress still claim that the situation in Iraq is being distorted by the 'liberal'media? Not according to several key GOP lawmakers. WaPo has the story.

George Will Takes on the Neo-Cons

2006-07-18T16:31:00.000-04:00

JUST WHEN YOU think George Will is going to give you a outside slider, he comes up-and-in with a fastball. Will's record as a conservative is virtually unblemished, but his take on Iraq is one of skeptisism at best. In today's Post he ratchets-up his criticism of the Neo-Cons to a new level.

Here's a sample:

The administration, justly criticized for its Iraq premises and their execution, is suddenly receiving some criticism so untethered from reality as to defy caricature. The national, ethnic and religious dynamics of the Middle East are opaque to most people, but to the Weekly Standard - voice of a spectacularly misnamed radicalism, "neoconservatism" -- everything is crystal clear: Iran is the key to everything...
So, the Weekly Standard says: "We might consider countering this act of Iranian aggression with a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Why wait?" ... "Why wait?" Perhaps because the U.S. military has enough on its plate in the deteriorating wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which both border Iran. And perhaps because containment, although of uncertain success, did work against Stalin and his successors, and might be preferable to a war against a nation much larger and more formidable than Iraq. And if Bashar Assad's regime does not fall after the Weekly Standard's hoped-for third war, with Iran, does the magazine hope for a fourth?

Or a fifth, or a sixth? When does it stop for the Neo-Cons. But Will isn't done yet:

...it is not perverse to wonder whether the spectacle of America, currently learning a lesson - one that conservatives should not have to learn on the job - about the limits of power to subdue an unruly world, has emboldened many enemies.

This isn't some liberal blogger talking, it's George freakin' Will. But just incase you didn't know it was George Will writing, he throws in this baseball reference at the end:

Neoconservatives have much to learn, even from Buddy Bell, manager of the Kansas City Royals. After his team lost its 10th consecutive game in April, Bell said, "I never say it can't get worse." In their next game, the Royals extended their losing streak to 11 and in May lost 13 in a row.

Now that's vintage George Will.

Mr. Bush is No Teddy Roosevelt

2006-07-16T16:05:00.000-04:00

I'VE TRIED TO read as many biographies of Teddy Roosevelt as possible. I can't brag about my results -- I'm only up to three so far. But those three are enough for me to know that TR and George Bush don't have very much in common -- despite what Karl Rove thinks.

Don't know what I'm talking about? Take a look at this piece in the New Republic by Washington Times writer Eric Pfeiffer. Here's the start:

Last week's Time magazine carried a paean to the virtues of Theodore Roosevelt by Karl Rove. Titled "Lessons from a Larger-than-Life President," Rove's article offered such insights as "The United States, while not flawless, is a profound force for good in the world" (lesson three) and "Character matters" (lesson seven). Though our current president--and Rove's boss--isn't mentioned in the piece, the implication is clear: George W. Bush is a modern-day TR. Yet anyone familiar with TR's life and presidency should understand that not only would he have had serious differences with George Bush, he would have hated Karl Rove....

Heath Shuler Coming to DC Again?

2006-07-12T16:31:00.000-04:00

THE FIRST TIME Heath Shuler made his home in Washington, the results weren't what you would call stellar. As quarterback of the Washington Redskins in the mid-90s, Shuler was a disaster, hardly living up to his potential as the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft.

But Shuler wants to come to Washington again, this time as the Democratic Congressman from North Carolina's 11th District. Here some of the lates info from the field:

Public Policy Polling (PDF). 7/10. Likely voters. MoE 3.7% (May results)
Without leaners
Taylor (R) 43 (42)
Shuler (D) 47 (46)

With leaners
Taylor (R) 45
Shuler (D) 51

And according to fundraising numbers from the latest quarter, the cash-on-hand numbers look like this:

Taylor $100K
Shuler $550K

Looks like great news if you're Heath Shuler. The only probem is that Taylor is worth about $500 zillion and he's going to be able to write some big checks in November -- the kind of checks used to spear opponents on TV. Shuler better hope Taylor doesn't produce any adds recapping his career with the Redskins. Neverthless, this race is proving that this seat is vulnerable for the GOP. You can visit Heath Shuler on the web at HeathShuler.com.

Income Gap

2006-07-12T08:48:00.000-04:00

THE NEW INCOME distribution numbers are out and the gap between the rich and the poor is getting wider in the United States. Before we sound too many alarm bells, let's understand that income disparity is not a bad thing. In a free-market economy there is going to be a substantial difference between, say, the richest 5% and the poorest 25%. The question about how to deal with this gap must be posed in very general terms if it is to answered adequately. As far as I am concerned, distribution of wealth issues are not worth getting too upset about as long as three conditions are being met: 1) the economy is growing and getting wealthier as a whole, 2) there is a safety net in place to protect the very poorest people, and 3) everyone has the ability to move up the economic ladder.

America has no problem with number 1. It's numbers 2 and 3 that sometimes worry me. That's where the discussion should begin.

Bush on Deficit

2006-07-11T16:40:00.000-04:00

POTUS IS SOUNDING like a proud father in recent days, claiming that his tax cuts are responsible for the fact that the deficit is lower than forecasters predicted for the current quarter. Unfortunately, he rarely mentions the fact that it was those very cuts that led to the largest deficits in recent history. Bush entered office in 2001 with government surplus at a record high. That very surplus has dwindled and turned into a record deficit ever since. Let's be grateful that the deficit is going down (at least at the moment), but let's also understand how we got onto Deficit Road in the first place.

Weekend Round-Up

2006-07-07T11:46:00.000-04:00

PLENTY TO DIGEST this weekend:

Foreign Policy reports Kim Jong Il's missle shenanegans are putting more money into some people's pockets.
Two great stories in WaPo on the two teams remaining in the FIFA World Cup. First story on the Italians and their penchant for singing. Then a fascinating story on the multi-hued French national team. (Allez les Bleus!!)
Will a new 'Guardian Toolbar' lesses fears that Myspace.com has become the nation's #1 site for sexual predators? [Freakonomics]
Batchelor pad at 30,000 feet? Yes, if you are founders of Google. [WSJ]
Bush news conference in Chicago[AP account]

Copy Cat Coulter

2006-07-07T10:46:00.000-04:00

BOTTOM-OF-THE-BARREL columnist Ann Coulter is facing charges of plagiarism. The New York Post ran a story on Sunday claiming Coulter has taken material from others (including the LA Times and Planned Parenthood) without proper notation. Apparently the uber-conservative Queen Ann is fairly liberal when it comes to citing sources.

UPS, Coulter's distributor, is looking into the allegations. The NY Post published the plagiarism story after working with a website called iparadigms.com, which has a sophisticated system of tracking digital information.

Coulter replied to the charges in typical fashion in her July 5 column:

Once considered a legitimate daily, the Post has been reduced to tabloid status best known for Page Six's breathless accounts of Paris Hilton's latest ruttings, and headlines like 'Vampire Teen: H.S. Girl Is Out for Blood. How crappy a newspaper is the Post? Let me put it this way: It's New York's second-crappiest paper.

Coulter went on to say, 'I have sold a LOT of books -- more books, come to think of it, than any writers at the New York Post.'

Ah yes, the classic 'I've sold more books than you so screw you' defense. That's one of my favorites.

Another for the NY Post

2006-07-07T10:02:00.000-04:00

I HATE TO keep refering to the New York Post, but they continue to provide some of the best headlines among the major dailies. Here's Thursday's:

Weekend Roundup

2006-06-30T20:21:00.000-04:00

FLAG BURNING, MILITARY tribunals, World Cup, and a lot more...

The Dems can't beat the Republicans at anything! Not even baseball. [Roll Call]
Freakonomics always has a uniqe way to look at an issue. Here, it looks at an interesting statistical development in the Duke rape case.
Hinduism, meet soccer. Soccer, meet Hinduism. [photo]
'Somalia defeats Rowanda to win Third-World Cup.'[The Onion]
Is the United States winning the war on terror? Not according to more than 100 of America’s top foreign-policy hands. They see a national security apparatus in disrepair and a government that is failing to protect the public from the next attack. [FP]

Not Exactly a Burning Issue

2006-06-28T09:00:00.000-04:00

THE US SENATE failed once again to pass an Constitutional amendment banning flag burning. But from the sound of things, most Senators -- even on the GOP side -- aren't too smoked about it. 'I don't think anyone would say it's the most important [issue],' said Trent Lott (R-Miss). Do other Senators think it's one of the most important issues facing the country right now?

'No, no, not even close,' said amendment co-sponsor John Ensign (R-Nev).

'Ha, ha, ha,' replied fellow co-sponsor Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-Tex).

'It's not a burning issue,' was the clever response from Gordon Smith (R-Ore)

In the end, the measure came one vote short of the 67 needed for it to pass. But that won't bother too many in the Senate because the floor debate and the ensuing vote wasn't designed to actually get the amendment passed. Instead, it was an attempt to get Senators on record one way or another in order to use the issue in the upcoming elections -- and you can bet the Republicans will push the rhetoric to new levels.

I can see the Rove-inspired TV spot now: 'John Kerry voted against an amendment to ban flag burning. No wonder the insurgents in Iraq are gaining so much power.'

Of course, no one is talking about the fact that the Supreme Court upheld the right to burn flags as an expression of free speech in TWO separate decisions in the 1980s.

Turns Out There Was Polling During WWII

2006-06-23T21:22:00.000-04:00

TONY SNOW TRIED to make a critical point last weekend by suggesting on one of the Sunday morning talk shows that it's the media that is causing people to be so nervous about Iraq. How can we win in Iraq, the argument goes, if the American people are only hearing about the bad news? "If somebody had taken a poll in the Battle of the Bulge, I dare say people would have said, 'Wow, my goodness, what are we doing here?', Snow said.

Well guess what? Turns out there were several extensive polls taken right about the time of the Battle of the Bulge. Hadley Cantil had a poll that showed 'no downtick in public support for the war during the battle of the Bulge.' Al Kamen at WaPo has details about a Gallup poll taken in 1944-45:

In fact, there was a poll taken by Gallup from Dec. 31, 1944, to Jan. 4, 1945 -- three years into that war and right in the middle of the bloody Battle of the Bulge, where U.S. casualties were estimated between 70,000 and 80,000. It found that 73 percent of Americans would refuse to make peace with Adolf Hitler if he offered it and that 86 percent of Americans thought there was no chance that we would lose the war in Europe.

Oops. Again.

Getting Our Metaphors Straight

2006-06-23T21:16:00.000-04:00

WHAT'S WITH ALL the 'cut and run' references lately? It's a favorite among Republicans trying to argue that the Dems want to flee Iraq. Some Republicans have amended the phrase, saying that what some on the left want to do is 'cut and jog.' Mitch McConnell even said, 'cut and walk' the other day. Tony Snow uses the phrase at nearly every press conference.

Here's my issue: 'cut and run' is a sailing term that refers to sails and slips, not a metaphor for turning on your heels and running.

So cut out the 'cut and run' references. Now!

Money Race

2006-06-21T09:44:00.000-04:00

ACCORDING TO RECENTLY released FEC records, the Democrats in the House and Senate find themselves in an unusual position: they have raised more money than the Republicans for the upcoming mid-term elections. The dems have nearly $50 million in the bank (compared to $39 mil for the Republicans). Let's see if they can use some of that money to buy a message they can all agree on.

Snow's Blame Game

2006-06-20T11:38:00.000-04:00

APPARENTLY THE ONLY people who don't know that the war in Iraq is going well is the biased media. At least that's what Tony Snow has been saying on the morning shows. Snow toured the morning shows Sunday with this basic message: Bush doesn't make policy decisions based on polls (fair enough), and the only reason Americans appear to be overly impatient with the war is because of all the negative media coverage. Perhaps Snow didn't read the recent Wall Street Journal editorial suggesting that, in fact, the media may be underplaying how dire things are in Iraq.

Or maybe he didn't read the cable from the US embassy in Baghdad to the State Department (signed by Ambassador Khalilzad) in which it painted a pretty grim picture of what's going on right now. The cable was sent just prior to Bush's surprise visit last week.

But whatever the reason, Snow is pushing the idea that the media is to blame. Check out this comment on Fox News Sunday:

The thing is the way the war is being covered -- and we've seen it right now. We have two US servicemen -- and God bless them. We hope they're Okay. We're focusing on them and we forget that since Zarqawi was killed, hundreds of bad guys have been rounded up.

Or this from CBS's Face the Nation:

the fact that two American servicemen are missing -- that becomes the big story, rather than the fact that you've got almost 60,000 forces on the ground going after bad guys. We've apprehended hundreds of bad guys since Zarqawi died.

How dare the media focus on two young marines that are missing, and have since been found dead in the street. Perhaps Snow would prefer if the government controlled the news -- you know, so this kind of reckless journalism could be put in check.

Lieberman-McCain/McCain-Lieberman '08?

2006-06-19T10:18:00.000-04:00

IF RECENT POLLS are accurate (and I'm not saying they are), both Joseph Lieberman and John McCain are in a bit of trouble within their own party. A recent Rassmusen poll shows that Lieberman is losing ground in his own Senate bid in Connecticut. McCain has no worries in terms of his Senate seat, but Republicans -- especially the talking heads and the Christian Coalition types -- are not anxious to see him as the nominee.

That brings me to my point: both Dems and GOPers have hinted -- joked, really -- that Lieberman and McCain could both run as Independents. So, could we see a McCain-Lieberman or Lieberman-McCain ticket? And, more importantly, could a viable third party ticket be just what our political system needs right now?

Condi Having More Influence? Let's Hope So

2006-06-19T09:52:00.000-04:00

THERE IS HOPE that the Rummy-Cheney death grip on this administration is beginning to ease. It appears that Condi Rice is beginning to hold a bit more sway at the White House. Andrew Sullivan explains in his Times of London column this week.

Bush certainly had a good week last week. The death of Zarqawi and his surprise trip to Baghdad were widely viewed as yet another 'turning point' in the war on terror. However, I'm still waiting for the moment when a member of the US government can actually phone ahead before visiting Iraq. You know, to let the Iraqi government know that they are coming.

Now that will be a turning point.

Will Someone Please Give Ann Coulter a New Act

2006-06-13T16:22:00.000-04:00

JUNE IS UNOFFICIALLY the month when the world doesn't care about anything but the World Cup. With any luck then, most of the world will miss Hurricane Coulter, the Cat 5 storm that hit Fox News this week. And in typical Fox News style, Coulter is on the channel almost every day, shilling for her new book. But don't worry, the coverage is 'Fair and Balanced,' thanks in part to hard hitting questions from Sean Hannety and Allan Colmes. (My favorite questions was from Hannety: 'Ann, aren't you being demonized by the liberals?' Wow, hope she was ready for that fastball.) Coulter, of course, is loving the attention that her new controversial book is getting ($$$). Of course, this only helps prove my theory that the only way she can sell books is by swimming to the bottom of the barrel and scraping up the reckless, biting commentary that even far-right operatives won't touch. Without the controversy, no one cares about her opinion -- that is clear. But hey, she's whoring herself to the frenzied media and it's working. God Bless America.

Some other items of interest for this week:

Fairly good (and not necessarily negative) column about Ann Coulter by NYT's David Carr (of course, you have to have a password to read it. Damn you, New York Times!)
A convention in Las Vegas for liberal bloggers. Tell the hookers to get ready -- these socially challenged, unattractive, internet hermits will be looking for some action.
A former student of mine has a full-page piece in the USA Today about the Volvo Ocean Race.

The Bush-Clinton Doctrine on Negotiating with Nuclear Powers?

2006-06-13T16:08:00.000-04:00

AS PRESIDENT BUSH visited with members of the new Iraqi government today, I was struck by the fact that POTUS was probably only a couple hundred miles from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Any chance AF1 took a short detour to Tehran for some nuclear (or is it nucular) talks with the Iranian Pres?

I doubt it, but it's worth noting that as Bush contemplates the possibility of nonproliferation talks with Iran, he is running some of the same risks he said the Clinton administration took in their approach to North Korea. Does anyone else see this? Bush (and the Right) were quite critical of Clinton's negotiating tactics with the regime in Pyongyang, arguing that despotic states make unstable, untrustworthy negotiating partners.

As the WSJ put it in today's edition, 'Now the Bush team has opened the door to the possibility of holding similar talks with Iran -- not direct talks, but as part of an international dialogue already started by America's European allies. Indeed, these talks could ultimately lead to an agreement like the one the Clinton team reached with North Korea.'

Bits & Pieces

2006-06-03T15:17:00.000-04:00

AS FAR AS headlines go, this one is pretty good from the NY Post:

...'boost hicks in sticks.' How great is that? The Washington Post chimed in Saturday with this editorial.

Other interesting items for your weekend reading:

Tom Shales wonders why the only good new television shows are dramas. I wonder if he's ever seen 'The Office' or 'My Name is Earl'? Both are comedies and both have been nominated for best new show at the 22nd Annual Television Critics Association Awards. Lisa de Moraes has details in WaPo.
FP Magazine has an interesting list of failed states that attempts to identify the least stable (economically, politically, etc.) country in the world. If you had Sudan in your office pool, you win!
Very interesting series in the Washington Post called 'Being a Black Man.' On Friday, Michael Fletcher's installment called At the Corner of Progress and Peril.
The Washington Times says that Bush is beginning to circle the wagons in response to low pollin numbers.

Convenient Federalism

2006-05-26T12:53:00.000-04:00

NOW IS AS good a time as any to jump into the gay marriage debate. My interest in the issue does not center on whether gay marriage is acceptable from a moral perspective, but rather why there is such a push by Republicans to make this a federal issue. Why, for example, is the GOP pushing the Marriage Protection Act as a federal issue while at the same time trying to convince the public that abortion should be a state issue? Could it be because the MPA plays well in their polling data and they hope they can use the issue to salvage control of the House and Senate in November? You better believe it.

As usual, my thoughts on this have been triggered by outside sources -- this time Jon Rauch in his National Journal column. Here's a quick highlight:

Two questions for anti-gay-marriage, anti-abortion Republicans: If states can be allowed to go their own way in defining human life, why not allow them to go their own way in defining marriage? Where constitutional amendments are concerned, why is preventing gay couples from marrying so much more urgent than preventing unborn children from being killed?

It is precisely because marriage is so important, and because it is the subject of such profound moral disagreement, that a one-size-fits-all federal solution is the wrong approach. California and Texas, Massachusetts and Oklahoma take very different views of same-sex marriage. By localizing the most intractable moral issues, federalism prevents national culture wars.

Despite this critique, look for this issue to be a big part of the GOP strategy this fall.

Comment of the Week

2006-05-22T16:40:00.000-04:00

DON'T FORGET TO post your comments. The best comment of the week (or, in some cases, the ONLY comment in a particular week) will be posted on JIB. This week's comment comes from blogger Jeremy in response to a post about Bush's prime time immigration speech last week:

I think the Senate plan will really have a positive effect on illegal immigration. What better than a 350-mile fence on a 1,900 mile border. Bush says he wants whatever plan will "work". C'mon George.

Why so cynical?

Rejecting the 'Values Voter' Tag

2006-05-19T10:32:00.000-04:00

"AN AGGRESSIVELY ANNOYING new phrase in America's political lexicon is "values voters." It is used proudly by social conservatives, and carelessly by the media to denote such conservatives. This phrase diminishes our understanding of politics. It also is arrogant on the part of social conservatives and insulting to everyone else because it implies that only social conservatives vote to advance their values and everyone else votes to ... well, it is unclear what they supposedly think they are doing with their ballots."

This from George F. Will in Thursday's Washington Post. It is a must read for anyone who gets fet up with the hijacking of the language that takes place on both sides of the isle (the far Right has been trying to monopolize the word 'family' for years while some on the other side have tried their best to politicize words like 'Christian' --as in 'Christian Right').

But give George Will some credit here. He often seems to be ahead of the pundit curve, resisting some strong Republican currents while maintaining his staunchly conservative viewpoints. To quote Andrew Sullivan, Will's 'rebuke of the "values voter" appropriation is overdue.' Give the column a quick glance.

Bush in Prime Time

2006-05-15T09:18:00.000-04:00

PRESIDENT BUSH DOES not want to give this speech. Tonight's speech is the political version of a Hail Mary. It's only the end of the first half, but he's so far behind he can't just run out the clock -- he's got to throw one up for grabs. The speech (in May Sweeps prime time, no less) amounts to an admission by the administration that they are in trouble. With poll numbers in the Nixon range, Bush is hoping tonight's address can start to reverse his recent slide in the polls. He's got his work cut out for him.

It seems to me that Bush is in trouble on all three political fronts. He lost the liberals on tax cuts and Iraq (not that he ever had them -- but he's beyond the point where he can get them back). He lost the conservatives on immigration and federal spending. He lost the middle (what remains of it) on Katrina and gas prices.

What's left? Not much. And when you don't have much to work from, the only choice to go after your base. That's Politics 101. Look for POTUS to reach to the right tonight.

I just hope the speech is over before '24'.

First Day of Snow's Job

2006-05-13T19:27:00.000-04:00

AS FIRST DAY'S go, Tony Snow's could have been better. Or could it have? Dana Milbank chronicles Snow's first day on the job as new WHPS in Saturday's Wash Post. Despite a couple of hiccups (intentional?), Snow came across as both knowledgeable and humble (intentional?). It's also clear he is going to play the New Kid on the Block routine as long as he can get away with it. Several times he refused to answer a questions because 'I frankly just don't know enough' about the issue.

Fair enough. Milbank's piece is worth a read.

By the way, JIB gives Snow credit for the Livestrong arm band (see photo).

End of an Era?

2006-05-13T19:18:00.000-04:00

IS THE RELATIONSHIP really drawing to a close? The Economist argues that it is, even though Bush still has 2 1/2 years in office and Blair could have nearly four. Read the article here.

Farrakhan on the Left, Falwell on the Right

2006-05-05T08:42:00.000-04:00

BOY OH BOY, the radio talk show hosts sure had a field day last week when Hillary Clinton decided to attend a rally led by Louis Farrakhan. They ranted ranted and raved about the blatant attempt by Hillary to reach out to her liberal base -- even if it means associating with the 'extreme left.' Granted, it was nothing if not pandering on Hillary's part, but I'm more interested to see what these same hosts say about John McCain's visit to Liberty University next week to meet with the Farrakhan of the right wing -- Jerry Falwell.

That's not my analogy by the way -- it comes from the Senator from Arizona himself in a quote from a CNN interview in 2000:

Neither party should be defined by pandering to the outer reaches of American politics and the agents of intolerance, whether they be Louis Farrakhan or Al Sharpton on the left, or Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell on the right.

Pander away Hillary. Pander away McCain.

Hookers and Congressman: This Could Get Good

2006-04-30T10:44:00.000-04:00

JUST WHEN I was beginning to think that the run-of-the-mill Congressional scandals were getting a bit boring, my man Duke Cunningham (the CA Republican who resigned amid financial scandals several months ago) comes roaring to the rescue. This from the Wall Street Journal:

Federal prosecutors are investigating whether two contractors implicated in the bribery of former Rep. Randall “Duke” Cunningham supplied him with prostitutes and free use of a limousine and hotel suites, pursuing evidence that could broaden their long-running inquiry.
Besides scrutinizing the prostitution scheme for evidence that might implicate contractor Brent Wilkes, investigators are focusing on whether any other members of Congress, or their staffs, may also have used the same free services, though it isn’t clear whether investigators have turned up anything to implicate others. [JIB emphasis]

If this doesn't get you interested in Congress again, nothing will. Oh man, this could get good. The Journal story also reports that the FBI is interviewing women from various DC escort services and looking into the possibility that some of Cunningham's infamous parties took place at THE WATERGATE! You can't make this stuff up! If this turns into a Watergate II scandal, Deep Throat will have an entirely different meaning.

WSJ has the full details. Just Inside the Beltway will --shall we say -- stay on top of the story. Check back from time to time.

Gas Map

2006-04-24T09:43:00.000-04:00

IF YOU DON'T think gas prices are going to be an issue in the upcoming election, take a look at this interactive map from Gasbuddy.com.

Note to Republicans: on this map, it's not good if a state is red.

Hu's Coming for Dinner

2006-04-20T15:17:00.000-04:00

JOSH BOLTON DIDN'T know the CoS job was going to be this difficult. This from a recent exchange between Bolton and POTUS:

GW: Some important people are coming for dinner tonight with the Chinese President, so let's make sure I have all the names straight.
JB: Good idea.
GW: Well, for starters, who's the President of China?
JB: Yes.
GW: I mean the fellow's name?
JB: Hu.
GW: The president of China.
JB: Hu.
GW: The guy that's the president...
JB: Hu is the President of China
GW: I'm asking YOU who's the president of China.
JB: That's the man's name.
GW: Who's name?
JB: Yes.
GW: Well go ahead and tell me.
JB: That's it.
GW: That's who?
JB: Yes.

"Let Them Speak Freely...Except for Her"

2006-04-20T11:14:00.000-04:00

YOU CAN'T HELP but love this story.

At a carefully scripted event on the south lawn of the White House this morning, something went terribly wrong: a heckler disrupted Chinese President Hu's speech several times, causing such a scene the she had to be carried away by uniformed secret service agents. This has got to be embarrassing for GW on several fronts:

First, there's no way Bush wanted to publicly embarrass the Chinese president, particularly during a speech that was being carried live on tv in both the US and China.
Second, the heckler began shouting things like: 'President Bush, stop him from killing'...'Stop persecuting the Falun Gong'...'President Hu, your days are numbered'. How ironic that the heckler chose to -- shall we say, speak up -- right after Bush finished his speech -- a speech in which he urged President HU to allow Chinese to 'speak freely.' There is no way you could make this stuff up.

I know this isn't necessarily anyone's fault over at the WH, but someone's going to have to explain how this heckler got into the ceremony. Hey, at least Scott McClellan won't have to do it.

Watch NBC video footage.

Murdock and MySpace

2006-04-19T11:05:00.000-04:00

WHEN RUPERT MURDOCK'S News Corporation purchased Myspace.com for nearly $600 million last year, many in the media world were surprised that Murdock would spend so much for what amounted to little more than a place for high school teenagers to hang out on the web. But since News Corp. bought the site last July, the number of visitors to the site has jumped from 16 million to nearly 30 million, positioning Murdock's firm among the giants of the internet. Another brilliant move by Murdock? Maybe.

The Economist recently had a piece on Murdock's recent investment and the mag says the Myspace move may not turn out as rosy as some may think. The reason: Myspace has some inherent problems, not the least of which is that it has become a haven for sexual predators. (It doesn't help that a significant number of users -- many in their mid-teens -- use the site to post photos of themselves in less-than-complete attire). As a result, parent groups and school administrators around the country are beginning to take a closer look at the site. Several school districts have restricted access to the site as have some public libraries. Parents are petitioning local legislators to have the site more carefully monitored. One of the key objections to the site is that you can register as a 'fake' person -- claiming you are a 16-yr old high school student, when in reality you are a 56-yr old pervert. This is a significant problem.

But a more important problem for Murdock involves advertisers. In recent weeks, several high-stakes advertisers have begun taking their ads off the site, fearing consumer backlash. That could be devastating for Murdock since ad dollars are the key to turning this investment into profit. For it's part, News Corp. has just hired a 'czar' to monitor content on the site -- a move clearly designed to ease advertisers' fears.

At it's root, Myspace is a site for people to keep in touch. 75% of Myspace users are under the age of 18 (yet I know so many people in their 30s who use the site -- why?), and most are using it in a way that is hardly objectionable. For my money, I don't understand the fascination with communicating with friends and strangers via the internet (did I just say that when I run a blog? I'll argue that this is a different kind of communication and hope you buy it). I'd rather go to a coffee shop and talk to my friends in person, but that's just me. However, I do have a fascination with the financial implications of internet business so I'll be watching to see what Murdock does to make his $600 million investment pay off.

Page Six and Pulitzers

2006-04-18T09:03:00.000-04:00

THE PAGE SIX story at the NY Post may come across as low-brow and second-rate, but Howard Kurtz says even journalists at papers like the Washington Post have a little 'page six' in them when it comes to sources. Could it be?

Speaking of the Post, I have to at least acknowledge the four Pulitzer Prizes the Post won yesterday. In this space I predicted a Pulitzer for the Post's coverage of the Abramoff scandal -- and sure enough, Susan Schmidt, James V. Grimaldi and R. Jeffrey Smith got one for their investigative reporting on the story. Other winners include Dan Priest, David Finkel, and Robin Givhan (yes, you can win a Pulitzer writing critically about fashion!). [More at WaPo]

The Washington Post arrives on my doorstep every morning, so I root for it to do well when these kinds of awards are handed out. I also root for the Post because I rip-off a lot of their stories for this blog! Just trying to be candid.