I've Moved...

...and not just on the web. I have moved to France where I am now living with my family. So now my whole family can be seen at www.frenchforawhile.blogspot.com.

-JIB

I'll have to Watch from France

BECAUSE I AM moving to France in about 2 weeks, I'll have to make this my last post here. From now on I will be at a new blog called French for a While. And what a shame that I won't be 'inside the Beltway' during the Primary season.

But that won't stop me from paying close attention from afar. To close I thought I'd put a couple of quick thoughts down before I go:

• I know Rudy is a sexy pick right now, but -- as I've told some friends -- I see him as a one-trick pony. Everything is about 9/11 and terrorism. I just get the feel that he will answer every question through the lense 9/11. This will get old and the other candidates, if they are smart, will begin to pounce on this. He has no shot to win in Iowa (not conservative enough) and almost no shot in NH. Rudy's strength is at the national level, but the primary system doesn't treat 'national-first' candidates very well. Good luck Rudy, but I'm not betting on you.
• I like John McCain, but I liked him better in 2000.
• Clinton-Obama. If Barak wins early it's curtains for Hillary -- it's that simple. I think Dems really want to vote for Obama (and they're looking for an excuse NOT to vote for Hillary) but they aren't sure he can win in a national election. If he can pull out victories in Iowa and NH, and therefore prove he can win, Dems will jump off the Hillary bandwagon quicker than you can say Madame President.
• Mike Huckabee is by far the most interesting Republican to listen too. He's funny, articulate, and common sense isn't a foreign concept to him.
• If I was voting for the person who looks the most presidential I'd vote for Mitt Romney. If he doesn't get the nomination I hope he stars in the next NBC White House drama.
• How am I supposed to take Chris Dodd seriously?
• Biden: probably knows more about foreign policy than anyone in the field -- but he has zippy chance of finishing in the top 3 in any Dem primary.
• Is John Edwards hoping for another VP slot?
• I love the nerdy character Denis Kucinich used to play on Saved by the Bell?

It's tough to make a prediction, but if had to go with a choice today I'd say:

• Democratic Nominee: Barak Obama
• Republican Nominee: John McCain

As my least favorite sports talk show host would say: I'm Out!

New JIB in 07

JIB WILL BE back with a new design and enhanced features in January of 2007.
Until then...

Highlights, Not Essays

AFTER MORE THAN a week away from a computer, there is much catching up to do. However, I'll spare the long comments about mid-terms in favor of some short highlights.

• Dems gain control of House (no surprise), also get Senate (mild surprise).
• I would trade Jim Web or Claire McCaskill for Harold Ford, Jr., but that's just me.
• I hope Heath Shuler does better in Washington this time around.
• Who would have thought the GOP would go 0-for-3 in the contested races in Indiana?
• I'd sure like to be in Joe Lieberman's position right now.
• Larry Sabato wins the prognosticator award (off by 1 vote in House, nailed the Senate!).
• There were 15 open House seats held by GOP members. Dems won 12.
• The thought of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker scares me.
• Exhibit A in the 'Pelosi as Speaker Scares Me' case: her decision to back Murtha.
• Hooray for Steny Hoyer (a good Marylander, by the way)
• I'm I the only one who thought the MSNBC coverage of the elections was great?
• I'm glad Cynthia McKinney (D-GA) and Katherine Harris (R-FL) lost big time.
• How did George Allen go from Presidential hopeful to unemployed in 8 weeks? Surely there are reasons beyond 'mecaca'.
• What are we to make of the Religious Right now?
• I can think of about 30 GOP candidates who are pretty pissed that GW didn't fire Rumsfeld a few weeks earlier.
• It was fun to listen to Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity on Nov. 8.
• That's the only time it's fun.
• Did you see the meeting between Pelosi and Bush a couple days after the election? They looked like two junior high students on a first date. Awkward.
• Wow, Santorum sure took a beating.
• How did Livingston (D-LA) keep his seat? Maybe he paid off some voters with all that frozen cash.
• Who's ready for '08! Let the race begin.

All Comes Down to Today

ELECTION DAY HAS arrived and JIB is away on business. More to come next week.

Even More Predictions

IT'S NOW TIME to give Stuart Rothenberg's predictions. According to his Political Report the House and Seante will fall this way:

• House: Dems +34-40
• Senate: Dems + 5-7

More Predictions

ELECTION PROJECTION.COM HAS the mid-terms races falling this way:

• Senate: Dems +4
• House: Dems + 17
• Governor: Dems +7

Prediction Time

IT'S TIME FOR predictions! Not mine, mind you, but those who do this kind of thing for a living. Larry Sabato is up first -- his predictons are printed in his column today at RCP. Sabato's Predictions:

• House: Dems +27 for a 230-205 majority
• Senate: Dems +6 for a 51-49 majority

Hmmm. This is clearly an optimistic prediction if you're a Democrat. To get to 51 in the Senate the Dems need to pick up two of the three 'big' races (TN, VA, MO), and that could be a tough task. With Ford losing a bit of ground in Tennessee, Webb and McCaskill will have to pull out victories if the Democrats hope to gain control. And let's not forget that this all assumes Democrat victories in PA, OH, RI, MD, and NJ. And in case you've already chalked-up MD for Cardin, take a look at the most recent polls: Steele is within 3 or 4 point now.

JIB will keep close tabs on the predictions of the prognosticators. Stay tuned.